Changing Climate: Changing Ourselves
*Saumitra Mohan

There is a wide consensus all around that the problem of climate change stemming from the increasing concentration of green house gases (GHG) in our atmosphere is going to be the biggest challenge to the existence of life on this Blue Planet. And if there were any scruples left, the erratic climatic behaviour all over the globe including the Monsoon Deficit in India has disabused the same. It is also agreed unanimously that we would postpone the solution to this problem only at our own peril.

It is believed that the rise of even two degree Celsius shall mean the collapse of the global ecosystem. The global temperature has already risen by 0.6 degree Celsius since the beginning of the 19th century. The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) believes that global temperature shall rise between 0.5 and 2.5 degree Celsius by 2050 AD with an estimated rise of 1.4 to 5.8 degree Celsius by 2100 AD. An estimated 10 billion metric tons of carbon is said to be pumped into our atmosphere every year.

Even if we go by the most optimistic scenario, the global temperature, because of the sustained anthropogenic emissions and other cognate reasons, is likely to rise between 1.1 to 2.9 degree Celsius by the end of this century. As a result of crossing this critical threshold of two degree Celsius, it is believed that the same shall result in the global GDP loss between 1-5 per cent. The sub-Saharan countries are likely to be the most affected. Their economies may get devastated as a result thereof.

There is a real apprehension that melting ice cap of the snow-clad mountains and the melting ice sheet at Antarctica shall result into a gradual rise in the sea level. The IPCC assumes a sea level rise between seven to 23 inches by 2100 AD. The same is likely to displace millions of population in the littoral and riparian areas giving rise to the phenomenon of the environmental refugees. It is believed that every one centimetre rise in the sea level results in the displacement of about one million people.

A customized relief and rehabilitation programme needs to be drafted for them to preempt the impending catastrophe that may befall the human race in the times to come. Not only this, the resulting large-scale migration would also mean increased tension and discord among the countries of the world. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the UN agency concerned with the refugee matters needs to gear up early to face up to the challenge. The phenomenon of environmental refugees may turn out to be one of the biggest human catastrophes of all time.

The aggravating global warming is also likely to result in erratic climatic behaviour including irregular precipitations as is already visible now in the form of deficient monsoon in this country. The meteorological and climatogenic changes shall herald myriad problems. They would vary from flash floods stemming from abnormal precipitations at certain places to storm surges to drought-like conditions at many others. The rainfall patterns shall change for ever and so shall change the soil composition at many places thereby negatively impacting agriculture of that region.

All the situations shall uniformly lead to crop reduction or crop failures bringing in a food crisis with very serious implications for the nutritional security of world’s 6.75 billion people. Even though it is projected that India may be freed from the clutches of poverty, hunger and malnutrition and would become an environmentally safe country by 2030 AD, we should not forget that there are reportedly about 200 million undernourished and about 300 million people subsisting below the poverty line in this country. One just hopes that our National Food Security Mission succeeds in realizing its objectives and should thereby see through the feared food scarcity.

We shall also be confronting a severe water insufficiency as a result of the erratic rainfall. Abnormally high precipitation shall not mean high water table. Most of this hydrological bounty is likely to be drained out as a result of increased run-offs and also due to reduced holding power of the soil because of reduced forest cover. Melting ice cap or ice sheet shall deprive our rivers of a perennial water source. This would make our rivers seasonal thereby making water scarcity severer.

The dreaded sea level rise shall also mean that brackish water shall not only encroach upon the agricultural land making them unworthy of agriculture, but shall also infiltrate the freshwater aquifers thereby further threatening the source of potable drinking water. The resulting water stress or water crisis is told to be serious enough to engender water-related battles, even wars among nations. There shall, therefore, be a need for water use efficiency and a well-drawn water management policy. The watershed development would require special attention. More than that, there is a need for the end-users to use the water as efficiently and as sparingly as possible.

Besides, a serious health emergency is also awaiting us if we fail to respond to the incoming challenge in time. There shall be grave health-related problems in the form of increased incidence of various kinds of known and unknown diseases. They shall be mostly vector and water borne diseases, not to speak of various dermatological disorders and diseases occurring mostly because of hyper-thermogenic disorders. The climatic changes are also likely to affect our rich bio-diversity and physical geography. It is believed that millions of plant and animal species, many thousands already endangered, shall become extinct for ever.

The poor and the most vulnerable sections of the society are likely to be the worst affected by the climate change. This is because of their limited capacity, capability and resources at hand. There shall, ergo, be a need to find alternative livelihoods for these sections of the society. They shall not only lose their home and hearth first, but shall also be devoid of any resource or capacity to cope with the impending calamity. It is imperative today to ensure that millennium development goals (MDG) including halving the number of global poor by half by 2015 AD are realized will in time.

The provisioning of better hygiene and sanitation, health services, basic education and safe potable drinking water are among other important goals which are intricately intertwined with the problem of climate change. A healthy and better educated human resource can better cope with the problem at hand. After all, poverty is known to be one of the biggest reasons for pollution and global warming. And all round development is supposed to be the best antidote of this Mother of all problems. Famous social scientist John Rawls rightly says that ‘justice consists in maximizing the welfare of the worst off individuals’. Governments all over the world need to coordinate their actions to ensure that a suitable disaster management plan is in place to deal with any such situation.

But herein lies the nub of the problem. Notwithstanding the fact that there has been a series of dialogues to discuss the various aspects of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the developed North and the developing South are still to reach a consensus about the various modalities appertaining the ways to deal with the crisis. While the developing countries including India argue (quite rightly) that since it is the West which has caused the problem, hence, it is West which should share the major burden of meeting the challenge. They believe that the West must clean the Augean Stables it has left behind in its rush to reach to the top of the pecking order.

Even today, the per capita emission in the United States is four times that of China and 20 times that of India though China surpassed the United States in terms of emission of carbon dioxide in 2006 itself. India has proposed a 0.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Products (GDP) of the developed countries (reasonably less when compared to the 0.7 per cent recommended by the South Commission during the 1960s) to be contributed to an Adaptation Fund (something like a Green Marshall Plan) to be utilised for the purposes of helping the developing countries in meeting their sundry responsibilities arising out of the climate change problem.

To further curb emission of GHG, there is not only a need to check unbridled consumerism, but there is also a need for increasing production and consumption efficiencies across the board. Our water and energy consumption need to become more efficient. It is widely felt that people should be encouraged to use public transportation more than ever, but before that there shall be a need to make the same more efficient and more people-friendly.

There are recommendations for the impositions of high fuel and car taxes to discourage private car ownership. Tougher energy standards and high user (utility) prices are being suggested for everything to make the consumption more efficient across the board to reduce the ‘Consumption Overload’ on Mother Nature. There is also a need for an intensified education and awareness programme to conscientise our people and to make them appreciate the challenge at hand. Our day-to-day behaviour and consumption patterns also need to be adapted to bring the same in sync with the demands of our environment.

Our buildings need to become more energy efficient. The concept of ‘smart homes’ is required to be adopted in keeping with the changing times. All new constructions need to meet climate vulnerability norms. Our town planning and infrastructural constructions need to integrate the climate change concerns. There shall also be a need to build our infrastructures above the apprehended sea levels. In fact, many countries like Netherlands are already building defenses against the expected sea-level rise. Our weather forecasts shall accordingly be required to become more precise to safeguard the population from the vagaries of nature.

Besides, we need to undertake massive exercises for greening the globe to roll back the damages wrought to the Mother Nature. Hence, there shall be an urgent need to undertake afforestation at a massive scale as part of the humongous geo-engineering which might be needed for the purpose. The concepts of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Emission Trading System under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) can be suitably brought into service.

CDM means carbon offsets offered to rich country firms and institutions in exchange for the financing of emission reduction projects in the developing countries. And emission trading means sale of one’s quota of emission in exchange for financial or other assistance to those who need higher emission caps. There is also a need to build more biological sinks, give requisite tax incentives for adoption of costly but eco-friendly technologies, discovery of clean energy sources, putting in place a system of emission credits, ensuring better energy efficiency and to discourage carbon-intensive energy infrastructures.

Furthermore, we need to give deserved attention to our agriculture. As far as India is concerned, there is a crying need for a second Green Revolution in this country. Still about two-thirds of our net cropped area is under dry land farming and is rain-fed, accounting for about 42 per cent of the total food produce. An effort should be made by all to reduce our dependency on weather by expanding our irrigation network and bringing more areas into it.

We need to strengthen our irrigation capacity further to ward against an erratic monsoon. The proposed river linking project could go a long way towards an improved food security for our country provided the same could be made cost-effective and scientifically more practicable. The related R and D and agricultural extension services need to be suitably attended and undertaken. Climatic stress proof seedlings and saplings need to be discovered and popularized to ensure an undisturbed supply of food grains for us all. Genetically modified food, even though not universally acceptable, can show a way forward provided popular apprehensions could be suitably taken care of.

It is felt that we need more of ‘Rurbanism’ i.e. keeping a balance between the development of rural and urban areas. Even though we already have a National Action Plan on Climate Change in place, we need to see to it that the same is implemented with all seriousness. There is a greater need for building practical partnerships among countries of the world, NGOs, INGOs, United Nations, businesses and all concerned to better face the climate change challenge.

Transfer of technologies from the West to the East is one of the many proposed solutions. Eco-friendly technologies for coal gasification, carbon capture and carbon sequestration apart from creation of an efficient carbon storage mechanism, discovery of low carbon fuels and expedited development of renewable energy sources shall be required to better face the global warming problem. We also need to find and invest in alternative energy sources. There shall be a need to make huge investment in research and development (R& D) efforts for the purpose.

There shall be a need to introduce suitable changes in WTO’s (World Trade Organization) trade related intellectual property rights (TRIPS) regime to encourage transfer of eco-friendly technologies from the North to the South. There shall also be a need for enough escape clauses in the UNFCCCC to allow the developing countries to be able to strike a balance between the demands for development and the concerns of climate changes. Today, initiatives like International Carbon Sequestration Technology Forum (ICSTF) need to be encouraged more.

Burden-sharing among members of the Comity of Nations is one of the principal solutions doing rounds. A major portion of the same has to be borne by the developed countries because it is rightly felt that it is reckless consumerism and unsustainable life style of the West which has been chiefly responsible for the present climatic conditions. The North need to take a lead in this because of their better endowment in terms of resources and share the same with the developing South as the advantages or disadvantages emanating from a ruined ecology shall unfailingly come to all. The countries of the world shall need to work out a better synergy to face this problem when they meet next at the Copenhagen Summit later this year.